2011 Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Progress Review

Report Highlights

• Statistics may vary by different sources but cars produced worldwide in 2010 (latest data available) number about 51 million.  To this add the millions of vehicles already on the roads. Back in 2007, the SUV lead with 43% of a three segment market.  Hybrids have remained more or less constant since 2008 with 24 to 29% of the market.  According to HighBeam Research, through 2011 the EV had 61% of its market sector.
• Despite relatively modest sales projections for EVs for the next 15 years, automotive executives believe that some 83% of automakers will increase investment in electric motor production.  Over 81% of the automakers believe investment in battery technology will rise.  Approximately 65% of the automakers predict increased investment in fuel cell technology for automobiles.
• Hybrid car statistics show that over 200,000 hybrid cars have been sold in the U.S in 2010.  Nearly every production hybrid on the road today uses a power train combination that consists of a gasoline engine (ICE) and an electric motor, which is connected to a nickel-metal hydride battery.  This may make all hybrids seem similar, but each of them takes a different approach with their hybrid technology.

INTRODUCTION

There were some significant trends in 2011 for the electric vehicle and hybrid vehicle market.  These included everything from marketing strategies to component redesigns and improvements.  One trend is the widening and diverse number of EV component makers and the other is accelerating deployment of EV charging options.  Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Progress covers technical developments in electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles as well as industry and financial news related to the development of this market sector.  No hybrid vehicle (HV), no hybrid plug-in electric hybrid (PHEV), no fuel cell (FC) vehicle, or the so-called pure electric vehicle (EV) and no traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle is going to operate without a battery of some type.  A place to start to look at the developments in a practically zero emissions vehicle is to look at the battery improvements and chemistries, especially in the secondary type batteries often called rechargeable batteries.

How much and how soon and at what price still remain issues for electric vehicles.  In a late Dec. 2011 issue of USA TODAY, an article ran with the headline, “Are electric cars losing their spark?”  It seems that there is evidence that the drive to get plug-ins in front of buyers has hit some bumps.  Rather than exciting the auto-buyers, the plug-in seems to be fizzling.  Analysts would ask why?  Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Progress has been tracking this story from buyers not liking the high sticker prices, the government subsidies that don’t seem to help that much, and for the moment lower and more-stable gasoline prices.

First advertised as “all electric,” the Volt turns out to be mostly a soft hybrid or what is known as a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle that runs about 35 miles on its battery and then the internal combustion engine has other issues.  Nissan’s Leaf also has issues because the infrastructure to plug-in just isn’t there.  Think City car and the Aptera have gone bust.  Fisker wants $102,000 for its nice looking Karma.  As one shopper snipped, “Why would I want to dumb-down my Prius to have an extension cord?”  PHEVs are similar to the charge-sustaining hybrids except that they have a higher capacity energy storage system with a power electronic interface for connection to the grid(s).

Then there is the flip side of the car market as the media say all should be green or at least according to some analysts.  According to High Beam Research, the media attention of EVs, hybrids and SUVs (sports utility vehicles) has been monitored by them for five years.  Back in 2007, the SUV had the lead with 43% of that three market segment.  Hybrids have remained more or less constant since 2008 with 24 to 29% of that segment.  According to HighBeam, through 2011 the EV had 61% of that three market sector.  Then again, there is the question as to what is a hybrid and what is an electric vehicle.  Golf carts and forklifts certainly lead the electric small “wheeled moving devices” category.

There is also the opinion of the automobile company executives who direct the funding of money into electric technologies.  The majority of these executives don’t see an electric propulsion winner driven by consumer demand before 2025.  No matter the timeline of decades of development, EVs are still in their infancy.  However, the OEMs are starting to intensify investment and acknowledge that this is a competitive industry.  Despite relatively modest sales projections for EVs for the next 15 years, automotive executives believe that some 83% of automakers will increase investment in electric motor production.  Over 81% of the automakers believe investment in battery technology will rise.  Approximately 65% of the automakers predict increased investment in fuel cell technology for automobiles.  There is no clear electrified propulsion system just yet but the fully integrated hybrid seems to be the “electric vehicle” of choice at the present time.

The worldwide pool of vehicles new and old is huge.  Statistics may vary by different sources but cars produced worldwide in 2010 (latest data available) number about 51 million.  To this add the millions of vehicles already on the roads.  For a breakdown of production of vehicles by country worldwide, see http://www.worldometers.info/cars/.  Hybrid car statistics show that over 200,000 hybrid cars have been sold in the U.S.  Nearly every production hybrid on the road today uses a power train combination that consists of a gasoline engine (ICE) and an electric motor, which is connected to a nickel-metal hydride battery.  This may make all hybrids seem similar, but each of them takes a different approach with their hybrid technology.

The second edition of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles: Design Fundamentals by Iqbal Husain in Akron, Ohio, and published by the CRC Press, is intended as an undergraduate senior level or first year graduate school textbook.  Technical details, mathematical relationships and design guidelines are emphasized in detail along with the modeling of energy storage components.  If one wants a more technical explanation of why certain components are used, this is a book to start with.  Materials for Proton Exchange Membranes (PEM) and Membrane Electrode Assemblies for PEM Fuel Cells authored by Donald Saxman and published by BCC Research as Report FCBO35C highlights the market value of components for PEM fuel cell membrane electrode assemblies.  Portable Battery Powered Products: The Global Markets is also authored by Donald Saxman and published by BCC Research.

Chris Spivey

Senior Editor